Extreme Atmospheric Rivers in a Warming Climate
Extreme Atmospheric Rivers (EARs) are responsible for most heavy rainfall and catastrophic flooding along mid-latitude coastal regions. However, current eddy-insensitive climate models severely underestimate (~50 %) the EAR, which casts significant uncertainties on their future projections. Here, using an unprecedented set of high-resolution, eddy-resolution simulations from Community Earth System Model simulations, we show that the ability of the models to simulate the EAR is significantly improved (despite a slight overestimation of ~10 %), and EARs are projected to grow nearly linearly with warming temperature. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 warming scenario, there will be a global doubling or more in occurrence, integrated water vapor transport and precipitation associated with EARs, and a more concentrated tripling for EARs reaching land by the end of the 21st century. We further demonstrate that the coupling relationship between EARs and storms will decrease in a warming climate, potentially affecting the predictability of future EARs. (Shuvu Wang, Xiaohui Ma, nature communications)
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