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the year 2024 will become the warmest year in the history of measurements, which go back to 1940. After only 10 months, it is virtually certain that this year will break all previous records for average global temperature. The data comes as country representatives are at the 29th UN Conference on Climate Change (COP29) to be held in Baku, Azerbaijan. The new temperature record serves as both a further warning and a catalyst to encourage world leaders to take the final steps in the fight against climate change.
Temperature records in 2024: 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels
According to ERA5 data, the global average surface temperature in October 2024 was 15.25 °C , which is about 0.80 °C more than the average for October between 1991 and 2002. This temperature record also represents an increase of 1.65 °C above pre-industrial only , which is the threshold value set by the Paris Agreement as the maximum limit for maintaining climate stability. October 2024 was already the 15th month in the last 16 months when temperatures exceeded the limit 1.5 °C above pre-industrial values .
Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), said: "After 10 months of 2024, it is now virtually certain to be the warmest year on record and the first year with an average increase of more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels."
Projected global temperature in 2024: The largest anomaly on record
According to ERA5 data, the global average temperature in 2024 is likely to reach 1.55 °C above pre-industrial levels , which is a significant increase from 2023 when the global temperature was level 1.48 °C . In order for 2024 not to eventually surpass the temperature records of 2023, the average temperature anomaly would have to hold for two months and dramatically decrease to almost zero, which is highly unlikely.
Global and European temperature anomalies: October 2024 was exceptionally warm
Data from ERA5 show that October 2024 was the second warmest October in the world after October 2023. In Europe, the average surface temperature 10.83 °C , which is by 1.23 °C more as the average average value for October from 1991–2022. This is the fifth warmest October on record, with the warmest October recorded in 2022, when the temperature exceeded average values by up to 1.92 °C .
Global warming trends and challenges at the COP29 conference
The latest data shows a continuing trend of clear global warming, which is in direct conflict with the goals of the Paris Agreement. The goal of keeping global warming below 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels is getting further and further away. This record year therefore serves as a warning and challenge to countries at COP29 to make equivalent commitments and concrete actions in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, renewable energy sources and protecting ecosystems that help absorb carbon from the atmosphere.
Key actions they expect at COP29 include:
- Determination of future liabilities in the area of reducing emissions at the national level,
- increase in financial support for developing countries facing the greatest impact of climate change,
- support of renewable energy projects and energy efficiency,
- protection of forests and nature reserves as natural carbon reservoirs.
The year 2024 as a warning signal and a catalyst for future steps
The record temperatures we see in 2024 reveal the urgency of addressing the climate crisis. Experts and country representatives must achieve COP29 measures that will keep the critical temperature below the threshold. As the temperature of action continues to rise and the intensity of extreme climate events increases, it may become increasingly clear that without consistent and immediate action, the consequences of global warming are irreversible.
The year 2024 can thus be seen as a milestone that needs quick and correct measures to protect the planet and mitigate the effects of climate change on the next generation. Spring
