Climate costs of war

Every war has significant humanitarian consequences, but the environmental impacts of conflicts are often overlooked. Regardless of the size of the conflicts, the use of ammunition has extremely negative effects on nature. More than 5 % of the world's emissions are caused by conflicts or militaries, and the true extent of these impacts is not fully known. At a time when world governments are trying to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to promote ecological change and solve the climate crisis, military operations have an even more negative impact on the environment. Current research suggests that the emissions associated with war conflicts are poorly understood, so scientists are trying to better understand their impact on the decarbonisation targets of the Paris Agreement.

After the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the first serious attempt to evaluate the impact of conflicts on emissions was recorded. Researchers have developed new methods to map emissions directly linked to conflict. Calculations and the third version of the methodology from the New Initiative on GHG Accounting of War - an association of climate experts - are expected to be published at the COP28 climate summit in November. Scientists estimate that the emissions from the Russo-Ukrainian war could be comparable to the annual emissions of a small country such as Belgium. It should be emphasized that this is only one conflict and similar levels of emissions can occur in other wars globally.

Although the climate impacts of war cannot replace the humanitarian damage, understanding the volume of greenhouse gas emissions due to war is crucial to achieving international climate commitments. Military activities are often seen as exempt from emissions regulation due to imperative national security. Few countries report emissions data under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), leading to gaps in knowledge about the environmental impact of military emissions. According to current research, militaries worldwide may be responsible for approximately 5.5 % of global greenhouse gas emissions.

Factors such as military activities, including land, sea and air operations, as well as the effects of urban and rural fires, or damaged energy infrastructures, are taken into account when measuring emissions associated with conflicts. Other aspects include changes in energy production and demand, such as the increased use of diesel generators. On the other hand, industrial and economic activities may decline during wartime, leading to lower emissions. It is also important to take into account the potential increase in emissions during post-war reconstruction. In Ukraine, the government and the World Bank are trying to assess emissions produced during the war for reparations as part of recovery.

Following the example of the war in Ukraine, scientists are increasingly investigating the environmental impacts of other conflicts. New studies indicate that the initial months of Israel's invasion of Gaza caused a higher carbon footprint than the 20 most climate-threatening countries. About 99 % of the 281,000 metric tons of CO₂ released during this period came from Israel's air and ground invasion of Gaza, according to an initial analysis. The analysis shows that about half of the measured emissions were caused by US military aircraft transporting supplies to Israel. Likewise, Hamas rockets fired at Israel produced roughly 713 tons of CO₂. These findings suggest the need for more thorough research to fully understand the environmental impact of war. The study is only a snapshot of the conflict's larger military footprint... In part, it depicts the massive carbon emissions and widespread toxic pollution that will remain long after the fighting ends." monitored. This must change if we are to tackle the climate crisis.

Although the humanitarian consequences of conflicts are often prioritized, at a time when we are trying to reduce emissions due to climate change, it is also necessary to pay attention to the environmental consequences of war. Although the International Energy Agency and other bodies measure current climate commitments in the context of global energy, it is important not to neglect the growing emissions related to military conflicts. Increased transparency and governance of military emissions can contribute to more accurate international analyzes of carbon emissions and provide better predictions of future decarbonization strategies. (Co2AI)