Assessing the short- and long-term role of carbon dioxide removal in meeting global climate goals

The 6th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change lacked sufficient scenario information for the land sector to estimate the total amount of carbon dioxide removal. Here, using a dataset of terrestrial carbon dioxide removals based on scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, we show that removals through afforestation and reforestation play a critical role in mitigation in the short term, accounting for about 10 % (median ) of net GHG emission reductions between 2020 and 2030 in scenarios that limit warming to 1.5°C with a limited exceedance. New carbon dioxide removal technologies, such as direct carbon capture and storage in the air, will be scaled up to multi-gigaton levels by 2050 and beyond to offset residual emissions and reduce warming. We show that reducing fossil fuel and deforestation emissions (gross emissions) accounts for more than 80 % of net greenhouse gas emission reductions to global net zero carbon dioxide (CO ₂ ) regardless of the stringency of the climate goals. We examine the regional distribution of gross emissions and total carbon removals in cost-effective mitigation options and highlight the importance of incorporating equity and broader sustainability considerations into future assessments of carbon removal mitigation options. (Gaurav Ganti , Thomas Gasser, Matthew J. Gidden, more at nature.com)