Heat is likely to rise to record highs in the next 5 years, new analysis says

Forecasters at the World Meteorological Organization said on Wednesday that global temperatures are likely to hit record highs over the next five years, driven by man-made warming and a climate pattern known as El Niño. The record for the hottest year on Earth was set in 2016. There is a 98 percent chance that at least one of the next five years will surpass that, forecasters said, while the average from 2023 to 27 will almost certainly be the warmest on record. recorded five-year period. "It will have far-reaching consequences for health, food security, water management and the environment," said Petteri Taalas, the meteorological organization's secretary-general. "We must be ready."

Why it matters: Every fraction of a degree brings new risks.

Even a small increase in warming can worsen the risk of heat waves, wildfires, droughts and other disasters, scientists say. Increased global temperatures in 2021 helped fuel the heat wave in the Pacific Northwest, which broke local records and killed hundreds of people. El Niño conditions may cause further unrest by altering global rainfall patterns. The weather organization said it expects increased summer rainfall in places such as northern Europe and the Sahel in sub-Saharan Africa and reduced rainfall in the Amazon and parts of Australia over the next five years.

(Brad Plumer)